The future of Formula One is at stake

The FIA have chosen to play hardball, and now the teams are doing the same back. Only three of the ten constructors seem likely to submit an entry for the 2010 championship by the 29 May deadline, placing the sport's governing body in a difficult position.

Toyota and Red Bull (and thus by implication also Toro Rosso) have already stated that they do not intend to compete in 2010 under the current regulations, while Ferrari's board of directors are meeting today to discuss whether the Italian marque will be joining them. Renault's position too is far from clear.

For the three outfits who are likely to enter - Brawn, Williams and Force India - Formula One is their core business, their raison d'etre. But for the rest - the manufacturer teams and those owned by Red Bull GmbH - it forms just one aspect of what they do. Simply put, they do not need to be a part of F1 to survive.

Should Ferrari pull out of FIA-sanctioned F1, for example, it seems unlikely that they would stop racing completely. Moreover, the fact that Red Bull are negotiating a long-term contract with Sebastian Vettel suggests that they intend to keep racing for some while yet. The implication is that if the manufacturers are unable to come to a satisfactory agreement with the FIA, they will form their own breakaway series along the lines of the defunct Grand Prix World Championship.

Such a rift would be damaging to both sides. An independent championship without FIA sanctioning will lack credibility, while F1 without the major manufacturers - and especially without Ferrari - will find it hard to attract the same level of interest from fans and sponsors. One only needs to examine the split between the Indy Racing League and the Champ Car World Series to see how easily a famous motorsport brand can become tarnished.

The threat of a breakaway series has not yet been made overtly, but it is implicit in the manufacturers' rejection of the FIA regulations for 2010. The ball is now back in the court of the sport's governing body, who must decide whether now is the time to engage in negotiations, or whether - and for how long - they can keep trying to call the manufacturers' bluff.

The stakes are rising, and now the very future of Formula One beyond 2009 is being called into question.